Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium - Source: Unsplash

Three Premier League Outright Betting Tips As 2025/26 Season Nears

The 2025/26 Premier League season beckons—ushering in fresh hope, old rivalries, and the kind of chaos guaranteed to captivate millions. The football world’s eyes will fix upon Anfield on August 15th, as defending champions Liverpool look to set the pace against Bournemouth. And the Reds have already stolen the show this summer, without a ball yet being kicked.

Liverpool have embarked upon a summer spending spree that could make Manchester City weep. Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, and Milos Kerkez have all been brought in for well over £200m combined, prompting online betting sites to install the team as title favorites. But as Arne Slot’s men take center stage, punters are hunched over odds lists and spreadsheets, searching for that split-second edge before the narrative explodes into life.

While transfer drama and preseason conjecture dominate tabloid headlines, outright bettor focus narrows: where do the genuine value bets lie as the first whistle of a new era draws near? Here are three picks that we think could well hit throughout the new campaign.

Brentford to be Relegated – 3/1

If the Premier League has a canary in the coal mine for 2025/26, it might just be Brentford. While newly promoted Burnley, Sunderland, and Leeds soak up most of the relegation chatter, there are sound reasons why the wise bettor would do well to look toward West London.

Brentford have, for years, been the poster children for smart recruitment and bold analytics. But the margins are razor-thin, and the summer has delivered a body blow: Thomas Frank, tactician extraordinaire and the chief architect of the micro-club that could, is gone, snapped up by Spurs. In his place arrives Keith Andrews, a respected set-piece coach but a managerial novice in the world’s most unforgiving league. The risks are profound—and relentlessly exposed by the ruthless rhythm of the top flight.

Player turnover compounds the unease. Bryan Mbeumo, Brentford’s primary creative and goal threat - directly involved in 17 goals last season - has left. If the rumors are to be believed, his partner-in-crime Yoane Wissa is tipped to join the exodus. That represents the potential loss of 60% of Brentford’s goal-scoring output—numbers that doom even the most inspired pressing systems. The replacement pool, throttled by strict budgets, looks threadbare.

It is little wonder, then, that the markets see Brentford’s relegation odds shortening to 3/1. To add insult to injury, Andrews is joint-favorite to be the first manager sacked at 5/1. And the use of a probability calculator highlights how likely bookmakers believe the worst-case scenario is to occur.

Thunderpick's parlay probability calculator indicates that the chances of both Brentford being relegated and Andrews becoming the first manager to be sacked stand at 24/1. In a season where survival will be a ruthless numbers game, the warning lights at the Gtech Community Stadium are blinding.

Arsenal To Win the League – 5/2

Is this finally Arsenal’s year, or will another chapter of heartbreak be written into Premier League folklore? The bookies certainly consider them contenders, listing the Gunners as a 5/2 second favorite, behind the 9/5 frontrunners, Liverpool. The numbers say this is as plausible as it’s been since the days of Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira.

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners enter the season battered by disappointment yet fortified by experience—having finished runners-up in each of the past three campaigns, often by the slimmest of margins. Last season, they finished ten points off the top spot, which doesn't sound great. However, considering the fact that they had to deploy midfielder Mikel Merino as a makeshift striker due to season-ending injuries to both Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz, the Gunners' efforts weren't as bad as their final points haul might suggest.

Now, Arsenal have fired their most audacious signal of intent with the signature of Viktor Gyökeres—arguably the summer’s most coveted striker. Fresh from destroying Portuguese defences with 97 goals in 102 games for Sporting CP, the Swedish international brings a lethal edge to a side already boasting Martin Ødegaard’s cerebral playmaking and Bukayo Saka’s jet-heeled brilliance. The impact could be transformational, with a mere 10% drop in missed chances from last season being all that's required to close the gap entirely.

Arteta’s system thrives on high pressing and verticality. The Gunners led the league in both high turnovers and expected goals from open play last season. Add a world-class finisher, and the equation looks irresistible. The 5/2 odds for a long-awaited title—last won in 2004—are a testament not just to wishful thinking, but to genuine opportunity.

Aston Villa to Finish in the Top Six – 2/1

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Where some see constraint, others see cohesion. Aston Villa have risen to the Premier League’s upper reaches in recent years, finishing in the top seven in each of the last three years. Yet, despite finishing fourth in 2023/24 and sixth last term, the mood around Villa Park is curiously muted.

Why? Little activity in the transfer market, thanks in part to the Premier League’s punitive Profit and Sustainability Rules, has dulled some headlines. Yet, scratch beneath the surface and you’ll find a core unit brimming with reliability and ambition. Ollie Watkins—who notched 19 league goals last term—returns, alongside Youri Tielemans, one of the Premier League's standout playmaking midfielders. World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez remains in goal, and the Villains certainly have a spine that is capable of competing with the very best.

Numbers back up the sentiment. Under Emery, Villa have averaged more points per game than Tottenham and Chelsea since January 2023. Last year, they finished just a single result away from a second straight UEFA Champions League campaign. Three consecutive top-seven finishes are no fluke; 2/1 odds for a top-six berth, given their consistency and defensive solidity, might be the most undervalued position in the market.

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